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Possible mispricing: market 41% vs our read 68%

Why this fired: Model gives the 10+ bucket a materially higher probability than market pricing implies.

Confidence: high

Edge: 27.0 pts

Updated: 7 months ago

Type: Market moved faster than evidence

Possible mispricing: market 58% vs our read 70%

Why this fired: Forecast upgrades and warm-front news increased the likelihood of the 50F-54F bucket.

Confidence: high

Edge: 12.0 pts

Updated: 7 months ago

Type: Evidence update