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weather
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Highest temperature in NYC on March 15, 2026?

Full market breakdown, pricing gap, confidence, rule interpretation, and evidence stacked in a command-center layout.

Market Price

58%

Our Read

63%

Pricing Gap

+5.0 pts

Platform Update

7 months ago

Market Snapshot Overview

Forecast high 53F, observed max 47F so far

Category Sector
weather
Resolution Target
Mar 15, 2026, 11:59 PM
Last System Check
7 months ago

Resolution Mechanics

Counts toward YES
Official observed high temperature for Central Park / qualifying station
Does not count
Third-party weather apps
Unofficial neighborhood thermometers

Parser & Interpretation Rules

Rules are inferred from the public market question, description, and resolution source.

Use the linked Polymarket market page for final settlement wording.

System Metrics

Price Pressure58%
Model Conviction63%
Edge Intensity90%

Source Validation

FromMar 15, 2026, 12:00 AM
UntilMar 15, 2026, 11:59 PM
ZoneAmerica/New_York
AuthorityNOAA/NWS official observation station

Detailed Forecasts Locked

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Evidence Timeline Hidden

When available, this lists the exact posts, readings, and events affecting the market.

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